Post-16 Provision and the Learning Landscape in Manchester
Project Overview
After almost a century of population decline, Manchester has experienced a period of rapid and transformative growth since the turn of the millennium.
As a result, the city is now home to around 35% more people than in 2001. This reversal in demographic trends is fuelling a thriving local economy, but it’s also adding pressure to existing public services.
In common with other local authorities, Manchester City Council has a statutory duty to ensure there is sufficient education and training provision to meet the needs of young people who are over compulsory school age but under 19. With Manchester’s population of 16 to 17-year-olds forecast to rise by around 30% by 2030 – well above the national average - the council commissioned Think in late 2021 to assess whether the city’s post-16 education system is equipped to meet the needs of this rapidly-growing cohort.
What we delivered
Think reviewed the capacity of post-16 providers operating across the city, forecast future needs based on robust data analysis, and identified gaps in provision.
We drew on a range of data sources to build an initial assessment of the demand for, and supply of, post-16 places. Population forecasts based on data from the Office for National Statistics, the DfE's Schools Census, and the council’s own models were used to predict growth in this 16-18 age group over the next decade. We examined the capacity and location of post-16 providers, including sixth forms, further education colleges, and alternative provision; we also reviewed how young people’s subject choices are evolving, noting a broad trend towards STEM subject and technical education, which tend to require high volumes of floorspace per learner.
By marrying population and cohort data with key stage 4 destination data trends, we were able to model the likely increase in demand for each type of post-16 setting (e.g. FE college, sixth form college, school sixth form, etc).
Equipped with this data, we undertook stakeholder interviews with every mainstream post-16 provider located in Manchester, gathering qualitative insights into challenges and opportunities within the system. This mixed-method approach helped us to paint a comprehensive picture of Manchester’s post-16 education landscape, the likely scale and nature of future demand, and the capacity of providers to accommodate this demand.
Key findings
Our research revealed significant challenges for Manchester’s post-16 education system. We found that:
Nearly all post-16 providers were already operating at or near full capacity in 2021. By summer 2022, only 5% additional capacity was available across the system - far short of what will be needed in coming years, with large single-year increases in the cohort completing key stage 4 imminent.
While population growth is highest in North Manchester (where deprived neighbourhoods are more concentrated), most academic post-16 provision is located south of the city centre. The geographic mismatch between population growth and available provision risks deepening inequalities, creating further barriers to future achievement and progression for young people living in deprived areas.
The strong reputation of Manchester’s post-16 providers means that the city is a net ‘importer’ of 16-18 learners from outside the city. While this reflects well on the quality and reputation of the city’s main providers, it adds further demand pressure to an already stretched system.
Shaping Manchester’s Response
To address the growing demand for post-16 education, the report laid out 10 practical recommendations for the Council and its partners to take forward.
In the short term, it emphasised steps that could ensure the city made full use of existing capacity to accommodate students for summer 2022 admissions. It also highlighted the importance of the Council working with the Department for Education to secure funding for additional capacity across the city.
This included the need to develop new academic post-16 options in North Manchester, where population growth is most rapid. At the same time, expanding technical education options citywide would provide a broader range of pathways for learners.
Collaboration among stakeholders is another critical element. The report recommended using the Council-managed Post-16 Reference Group as a hub for strategic planning. Additionally, partnerships with neighbouring boroughs could help distribute demand more evenly across Greater Manchester, easing pressure on Manchester’s post-16 offer.
The report also stressed the need to stay ahead of demographic changes and emerging trends. For instance, there is a growing interest in A-level STEM subjects, some of which require specialised facilities.
Finally, the report notes the vital importance of providing all young people access to high-quality education within reasonable travel distances. Feedback indicated strong support from providers to extend Our Pass – which provides free bus travel for young people across Greater Manchester – to include tram and rail travel.
Outcomes
This report provided the first, high quality evidence base about the post-16 sufficiency challenges facing Manchester, along with recommendations in response. This enabled Manchester City Council, working with its providers, to foster a constructive dialogue with DfE about how the city's post-16 sufficiency challenges might be addressed.
As the city’s population continues to rise, demand for learner places will outstrip supply, particularly in North Manchester’s most disadvantaged areas. In discussions with the Department of Education, the council used Think’s report as an evidence base to illustrate the scale of the challenge – and the clear need for decisive, joined-up action.
But Manchester is far from the only place facing substantial post-16 sufficiency challenges. Forward-thinking strategies, clear Council leadership, and a collaborative approach between learning providers is needed to ensure the post-16 education and training needs of young people continue to be met.
Client Quote
“Working in partnership with Think UK in 2022, Manchester was able to determine the current and upcoming challenges in relation to sufficiency of Post-16 places in the city using comprehensive data collection, analysis and implementing recommendations.
This research has been key in our work with our partners to increase the volume of college places immediately, including capital funding programs and in-year growth, as well as informing long-term strategic planning considering too, the provision type and choice for young people.”
— Anthony Turner, Post-16 Lead at Manchester City Council