Capacity fears as college course demand grows
Last month, Think Director James Farr shared his thoughts on the demographic trends shaping the future of post-16 education provision in major cities like Manchester and Leeds. With demand for college places outpacing capacity, he highlighted the challenges facing local authorities and the action needed to create new learning pathways for young people.
Leeds is one of the English cities that keeps going from strength to strength thanks to a combination of factors including its vibrant business community, renowned universities and its rejuvenated football club.
As things stand, the city’s population is currently projected to rise to almost 900,000 by 2033 according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), equating to an eight percent increase from 2022.
After teenagers across Yorkshire received their GCSE results, it is worth pausing to reflect on the impact demographics will have on educational journeys. Growing popularity of college courses in some areas is creating capacity challenges as courses fill up early.
It means that this summer there is a growing risk that more young people will not be able to embark on preferred courses in September. Many further education colleges lack space to expand to meet increases in demand.
These areas include Leeds and Greater Manchester, which both received additional Department for Education funding earlier this year to address a shortage of post-16 course places.
How changing demographics are creating demand
To make sense of the situation, a look at statistics which focus on young people puts things into perspective. Between 2019 and 2024, the 16-18 population of Leeds rose 20.8 per cent (up by circa 5,100). Between 2019 and 2023 (latest data), the proportion of Leeds school leavers aged 16 progressing to an FE college course rose from 31.7 percent to 33.5 per cent.
This translated into more than 500 more young people gaining an FE college place in Leeds in 2023 than in 2019 (from 2,414 to 2,939 – a 22 per cent increase). The data tells a similar story in other areas, most notably Wakefield (a 24 per cent rise) and Hull (a 33 per cent rise).
High demand for college places across Yorkshire risks hampering efforts to reduce the number of 16 to 18-year-olds not in education, employment or training (NEETs). The 16-18 population in England is expected to peak in 2029, but some colleges already report difficulties meeting demand, resulting in higher competition for places, especially in technical subject areas such as construction and motor vehicle.
This leaves fewer options for those who apply late in the cycle in summer – these are often young people more likely to be at risk of drifting away from the education system.
Positive action can reduce the number of NEETs
There is a very real risk that a lack of capacity will hamper efforts to reduce the levels of 16 to 18-year old NEETs. Plus, in some areas there is less provision available to re-engage NEETs midway through the academic year as fewer specialist providers are working with hard-to reach young people nowadays.
Local authorities have the statutory duty to ensure there is sufficient 16-18 provision to meet young people’s needs, and some are already taking positive action. But to rise to this generational challenge, they must work closely with their provider base to gather evidence of demand and provider capacity and – where they identify risks – develop jointly owned solutions to the issue, working with Department for Education where required.
This article was originally published in the print and digital editions of The Yorkshire Post in August 2025.
