GCSE results day: A time of celebration or uncertainty?

As GCSE results arrive in postboxes and school halls across the country, we’re urging councils to respond proactively in the face of college capacity challenges.

Population growth and shifting learner preferences mean some young people risk missing out on their first-choice courses this September. Read our latest news piece, featuring Think Director James Farr.

As teenagers prepare to discover their GCSE results this week, a combination of factors – rising population and the growing popularity of college courses in some areas – are creating capacity challenges in colleges as courses fill up early.

This warning is prompted by Think’s detailed analysis of current trends, during our work with education sector leaders and local authority officials who have a statutory duty to ensure there is sufficient further education provision to meet the needs of 16 and 17-year-olds.

Meeting the rising demand for places

James Farr, Think Director, said: “GCSE results day is often a cause for celebration for teenagers and parents, but this summer there is a growing risk that more young people will not be able to start on their preferred courses in September.

“Some local authorities have seen 16-18 populations grow by as much as 30 per cent in the past five years. This, combined with a shift in some areas in learner choices towards FE colleges over other types of further education, means that many colleges are responding to significant increases in demand for places.

“The 16-18 population in England is expected to peak in 2029, but some colleges already report difficulties meeting demand, resulting in higher competition for places, especially in technical subject areas such as construction and motor vehicle.”

According to our research, areas that have seen above-average population rises coupled with a trend of more learners choosing FE college courses instead of other provision, are most at risk. These areas include Leeds and Greater Manchester, which both received additional Department for Education funding earlier this year to address sufficiency issues.

Creating long-term sufficiency strategies

James added: “We know from speaking to further education leaders on a regular basis that the lack of capacity is the topic that is uppermost in their minds with many courses filling up early.

“This leaves fewer options for those who apply late in the cycle in summer – these are often young people more likely to be at risk of drifting away from the education system.

“There is a very real risk that a lack of capacity will hamper efforts to reduce the levels of 16 to 18-year-old NEETs, as fewer young people access first-choice provision.

“Plus, in some areas there is less provision available to re-engage NEETs midway through the academic year, as fewer specialist providers are working with hard-to-reach young people now compared to a few years ago.

“Local authorities have the statutory duty to ensure there is sufficient 16-18 provision, and some are already taking positive action.

“But to rise to this generational challenge, they must work closely with their provider base to gather evidence of demand and provider capacity and where they identify risks, develop jointly-owned solutions to the issue – working with Department for Education where required.”